RESEARCH_FILE
Sunk Cost Pivot Avoidance
Sunk cost pivot avoidance is the tendency to keep investing in a failing direction because of what has already been spent — time, money, identity — rather than what is likely to be gained by continuing. Arkes and Blumer's experiments established that past investment has no rational bearing on future expected value: costs already incurred cannot be recovered whether the course continues or stops. Yet research consistently shows they dominate the continuation decision far more than expected future returns.
SEE THE PRACTICE
Turn a thought this research explains into one clear move.
THE THOUGHT
“Pivoting means admitting I wasted two years”
YOUR RECORDED RESPONSE
“The two years are spent either way. What matters is where the next quarter goes.”
ONE PRIVATE MOVE
Privately open a notes app or blank sheet, write the exact thought at the top, and list three facts that belong to the last two years and three choices that belong only to the next three weeks. Do not revise the list for polish.
How it sounds in your head
The inner script: 'I've put two years and everything I have into this — I can't just walk away now.' The research reads it differently: those two years and that money are already gone whether you pivot or not. The decision about what to do next is only about what's likely to happen from here — and the sunk cost is irrelevant to that calculation.