RESEARCH_FILE
Gambler's Fallacy
The gambler's fallacy is the erroneous belief that past outcomes in independent random events shift the probability of future ones — that after a streak of losses, a win is 'due', or after several heads, tails becomes more likely. Tversky and Kahneman (1974) traced this to the representativeness heuristic: people expect short sequences to look like the long-run average, even though each trial is statistically independent.
How it sounds in your head
The inner script: 'I've lost six hands in a row — statistically I'm due for a win, so now is the time to bet big.' The research reads it differently: each hand, spin, or roll carries exactly the same probability as the last. The streak is real; the implied debt from the universe is not.
TEST_YOURSELF · How well do you know this science?
01 A fair coin lands heads 5 times in a row. What is the probability of heads on the next flip?
Each coin flip is an independent event. The prior streak carries no statistical weight on the next outcome. The gambler's fallacy is the error of treating the independent events as if they are connected. source ↗